Alarming headlines have appeared in the German media in recent days about the state of the country’s military, suggesting the Bundeswehr only has enough ammunition for two days of intense fighting — a figure apparently leaked by unnamed sources in defense circles.
If this is true (and such information cannot be confirmed, as it is a state secret), German ammunition supplies are well below the standards expected by NATO, which requires each member to have 30 days’ worth of ammunition. To make up that shortfall alone, defense experts say Germany needs to invest €20 – €30 billion ($21 – $31 billion).
There are plenty of other shortages. The state of the Bundeswehr’s equipment has long been a topic of concern: Stories about tanks and helicopters that needed repairing, rifles that don’t shoot properly, and soldiers having to train in the cold without thermal underwear have filled the media for years.
Then, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende” (turning of the times) which was hailed by many inside and outside Germany as a sea-change in the country’s approach to foreign policy and military strategy.
To prove he meant it, Scholz announced an increase in the annual defense budget, making it the largest in all of Europe, and a €100-billion one-off “special fund” to modernize the military.
Scholz announces €100 billion defense fund
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Blame game
Nine months later, some are wondering where that mountain of money is.
The ammunition row sparked an ugly exchange between the government and the German defense industry about who should have taken the initiative: Is it up to the industry to increase capacity first, or should the government have placed orders more quickly?
“What I now expect from the arms industry is for capacities to be built up,” Lars Klingbeil, leader of Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), told public broadcaster ARD earlier this week. “But to wait and say: Let’s see what the politicians offer us — that’s not an attitude with which we can reduce these deficits.”
“If the German industry can’t manage it … then we have to see what we can buy from abroad, for example from other NATO partners,” Klingbeil added.
Klingbeil’s statements were “pretty wrong,” was the quick response from the head of the German security and defense industry association BDSV, Hans Christoph Atzpodien, who told the DPA news agency that major German arms companies had already doubled their capacities in the weeks after the war in Ukraine began.
“It’s ridiculous this theater that is being played out between the defense industry and the government,” Rafael Loss, a defense analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.
Loss pointed out that regulations are in place preventing arms companies from proactive production of weapons or asking banks for loans without a state contract.
His concern is that Germany lacks a sense of urgency in reacting to the geopolitical implications of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “Other countries have moved much quicker, especially in Eastern Europe, in creating the relevant working groups between government and industry,” Loss said.
Already, NATO partners in northeastern Europe are worried that Germany will not be a military partner to rely on. At a conference in Berlin in late October, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks provocatively asked his European colleagues, “We’re prepared to die, are you?” Addressing the Germans specifically, he said, “A lot will depend on the military power of your country, and, I’m sorry, your military power is currently not there.”
“To be fair to Scholz, I think his turning-of-the-times speech indicated that he is implicitly aware of this momentous challenge,” said Loss. “But it seems like the Defense Ministry and other institutions aren’t really up to the task of keeping all these balls in the air.”
Procurement has only just begun
Major orders have now been made under Scholz. Germany has signed a deal to buy 35 American-made F-35 fighter jets to replace its aging fleet of Tornados, at a cost of €200 million ($208 million) each. But it will take until 2027 before these are ready for use.
Military procurement is always a long process, and other Western European countries face similar problems updating their peacetime structures. Whether it’s socks or fighter jets, almost everything the military uses has to be ordered and then manufactured first. “You can’t just buy certain systems off the shelf in the DIY store,” Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht told the Bundestag in the parliament’s budget debate last week.
The recent stories about ammunition shortages emerged partly because questions were raised about maintaining supplies for the weapons being sent to Ukraine.
“To ensure a sustained supply of ammunition for the weapons provided to Ukraine, while rebuilding the German armed forces at the scope required,” said Loss, “we need roughly 15 times more ammunition.”
But there are many underlying long-term issues. In the past few decades, the Bundeswehr has sold off many of its Cold War-era storage bunkers — meaning that even if it did have the NATO-stipulated 30 days’ worth of ammunition, the military would be struggling to find anywhere to keep it.
A history of shortcomings
Defense analyst Loss thinks the criticism from the opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) sounds hollow. “Things weren’t different for the last 16 years when the CDU was in power,” he said. “It’s funny seeing the SPD and the CDU blaming each other for the sad state of the German armed forces, but I think both share roughly equal blame.”
Basic supply problems have long been an issue. The Bundestag’s defense commissioner, Eva Högl, recently told Die Zeit national newspaper that German soldiers still have to train without all the necessary protective equipment, thermal underwear, and other essentials.
She spoke of a combination of logistical inefficiency, a post-pandemic hangover, and bureaucratic inertia. “Unfortunately, there is also sometimes indifference and apathy on the part of the responsible officials in the Bundeswehr: ‘We don’t have it, be patient, it’s not that big a deal, we’ll send it soon enough,’ that’s what the soldiers hear all the time,” Högl said.
Some bureaucratic hurdles are now being fixed: Rules are being changed so that smaller orders don’t have to go through a Europe-wide bidding process, and commanders are being allowed to spend up to €5,000 without having to go via official procurement procedures.
Still, the government has now promised that basic equipment is expected to be delivered by the end of the year. So with any luck, the German soldiers will be getting their new socks in time for Christmas.
Edited by: Rina Goldenberg
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Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/is-germany-s-military-unfit-for-action/a-63955452?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-xml-atom