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Opinion: In Tehran, diplomatic hope dies last

  • June 10, 2019

Germany’s foreign minister went to Tehran empty-handed, and empty-handed he returned. There was no “miracle of Tehran” — the nuclear agreement was not saved, nor did the region suddenly change course for one of de-escalation. In any case, no one should have had any great expectations of this “journey to the crisis zone,” as Maas’ spokesperson described it. The party actually responsible for the escalation in the Gulf — the United States — wasn’t at the table for the discussions.

Washington’s campaign of “maximum pressure” is, as intended, strangling Iran’s economy. Oil exports have collapsed, there’s galloping inflation, the currency is in free fall. The pressure is also mounting in Iranian domestic politics. The result: Iran is nearly at the end of the “strategic patience” it has been practicing so far. Tehran is asking for concrete help in opposing the US sanctions — or, better still, their suspension. Otherwise, it has threatened that, beginning on July 7, it will start to carry out controlled violations of its obligations under the nuclear agreement, particularly concerning the enrichment of uranium beyond the permitted threshold.

Europeans have nothing to offer Tehran

But Germany’s top diplomat couldn’t do any more than point to the European trade exchange channel INSTEX as a way of circumventing American financial sanctions. So far, though, not a single transaction has been made via INSTEX. Europeans support the nuclear agreement, and with good reason. But they cut a helpless figure in trying to keep the agreement alive against the will of the US administration. They can’t provide the economic exchange and trade that was promised in return for the controlled renunciation of nuclear weapons. Banks, in particular, and businesses with US investments are too afraid of being targeted by the American financial authorities.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that Washington doesn’t seem to be of one mind concerning the aims it is actually pursuing in Iran. Regime change, as national security adviser John Bolton has in mind? Or just a “better deal” from the dealmaker-in-chief, US president Donald Trump? And if the US really is keen to have further talks, as both Trump and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, have said, why is this offer immediately garnished with another tightening of the sanctions screw, as happened last Friday? In any case, the real question is why Tehran should have faith in any new promises that come out of the White House when the United States is already reneging on the previously negotiated agreement.

Read more: Why Germany can’t concede too much to Iran

Every channel of communication is important

And yet: With aircraft carriers, soldiers and bomber squadrons already posted to the Gulf, it’s a good thing that the diplomats are heading there, too. The situation is extremely dangerous. Neither side wants a war — with the possible exception of perpetual hawk Bolton, but everyone is preparing for and anticipating him. In this situation, misunderstandings can trigger potential disaster. Every channel of communication is invaluable. Especially if Washington and Riyadh are also connected to these channels somewhere down the line — as with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Tehran at Trump’s behest, or that of United Arab Emirates Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed to Berlin, both set for Wednesday.

Ultimately, however, there is no escaping the need for direct talks between Tehran and Washington. The whole world has an interest in these talks, and Maas will have made the case for them in Tehran. But Iran is hardly going to sit down at the negotiation table while the sanctions knife is being held to its throat.

  • US President Donald Trump gestures at a podium

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    The deal breaker

    President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America’s “national interest.” The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.

  • USA PK US-Präsident Trump und französicher Präsident Macron in Washington (Reuters/K. Lamarque)

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Slap in the face

    Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration’s withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.

  • Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the Bushehr nuclear power plant (picture-alliance/AP Photo/Iranian Presidency Office/M. Berno)

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Iran scrap ‘voluntary commitments’

    A year to the day after Trump’s announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain “voluntary commitments.” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran’s oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.

  • USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier (AP)

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Response to US pressure

    The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a “clear unmistakable message.” Iran said it took action because the European Union and others “did not have the power to resist US pressure.”

  • The nuclear deal is reached in Vienna

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    A triumph of diplomacy

    The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.

  • Logo International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA (picture-alliance/dpa/R. Schlager)

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Compliance and verification

    The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran’s compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.

  • USA Barack Obama PK Iran Nuklear Deal (Reuters/Y. Gripas)

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Obama’s achievement

    The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the “worst deal ever.” The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn’t address other unrelated issues such as Iran’s ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for “terrorist” groups and human rights.

  • Iranians celebrate the deal

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Iranians approved

    The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump’s threats.

  • US-Israel: Trump and Netanyahu

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    The opponents

    After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs’ assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.

  • Various EU foreign ministers and their Iranian counterpart meet in Belgium

    Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

    Who’s left?

    The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.


Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-in-tehran-diplomatic-hope-dies-last/a-49131560?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

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