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Opinion: Trump calling off Taliban talks is not the end

  • September 08, 2019

In recent weeks, the Taliban have killed dozens of Afghans. And despite this grisly record, US President Donald Trump would have nevertheless met and shook hands with the Islamists today. Yet when news broke that a US soldier had been killed in yet another Taliban attack, US President Donald Trump called off the planned meeting — and thus ruled out the possibility of signing off on the US-Taliban deal.

Granted, weighing up the dead according to their nationality is a cynical thing to do — but it’s exactly what Trump is doing on Twitter. He knows full well that shaking hands with those who have the blood of US soldiers on their hands is poison for his re-election campaign back home in the US. Once again, by calling off the talks, Trump has followed his instincts to pander to his US base, while ignoring the potential repercussions elsewhere in the world. So does this mean the yearlong negotiations to finally bring peace to Afghanistan have come to naught? Fortunately, judging by the current status quo, this is a clear no.

Both sides seeking an agreement

Even though the Taliban has threatened to keep up its attacks and possibly kill even more US soldiers, and despite their control over large swathes of the country allowing them to strike wherever they want, including the capital, Kabul — the fundamentalist group knows that it cannot win with Western troops still on the ground. Otherwise, the Taliban would have never considered engaging in talks with their sworn enemy in the first place.

Soon, Trump’s emotional Twitter rhetoric will give way to a more level-headed foreign policy position vis-a-vis the Taliban. Indeed, the planned US-Taliban agreement seemed incredibly close to becoming reality — even though reports have surfaced according to which numerous issues remained unresolved. This may be the true reason why Trump canceled the meeting, while officially doing so out of patriotic solidarity with a fallen US soldier. After all, this resonates much more with his supporters back home.

Read more: DW reports from Afghan talks in Doha

DW's Florian Weigand (DW/P. Böll)

Florian Weigand leads DW’s Dari and Pashtu service

What about the Afghan government?

Despite the bloodshed, Trump cannot risk consigning the deal to the dustbin of history, as this would jeopardize one of his major election promises: Namely, to swiftly pull out all US troops from Afghanistan. And Trump is keen to see no more US soldiers killed in the country. If he walks away from talks, Trump risks the Taliban using deadly attacks on US personnel to force him back to the negotiating table. In which case, with his re-election campaign gathering pace, Trump would be blamed for every US soldier killed.

But the Taliban should rethink their strategy of deploying force to reach their goals as well. After Trump’s latest tweets, they should now realize that bombs will not produce a quick victory for them.

And lastly, there is the Afghan government, which so far has been systematically sidelined by the US and the Taliban. It may gradually regain importance, and plans to hold elections in September despite all obstacles so that voters can lend it further legitimacy. Afghans head to the polls in just three weeks’ time — even though it was long unclear if the election would even go ahead. The coming days will therefore be decisive, even without Trump’s surprise tweets.

  • Survivors of an attack in Kabul move away from the ensuing blaze (Reuters/M. Ismail)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    Fragile security

    Repeated attacks in Afghanistan in 2018 and 2019 have killed and wounded hundreds of innocent Afghans, and shown the world the fragile and worsening state of security in the conflict-stricken country. The incidents have plunged war-weary Afghan citizens into a state of despair and highlighted the limitations faced by the government in Kabul in ensuring public security.

  • Against a backdrop of black smoke, a helicopter flies over a military hospital in Kabul (picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Hossaini)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    A long series of attacks

    The violent incidents have made Afghanistan once again a staple of international headlines. Outfits like the Taliban and the “Islamic State” (IS) have claimed responsibility for the attacks. The Afghan government is under heavy pressure to restore security and take back territory controlled by a number of insurgent groups, including the Taliban and IS.

  • Afghanistan Taliban Kämpfer in der Ghazni Provinz (Reuters)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    Spring offensive

    In 2018, the Taliban announced the start of their annual spring offensive, dismissing an offer of peace talks by President Ashraf Ghani. The militants, fighting to restore their version of strict Islamic law to Afghanistan, said their campaign was a response to a more aggressive US military strategy adopted in 2017, which aims to force the militants into peace talks.

  • USA Ashraf Ghani und Donald Trump auf der UN Vollversammlung in New York (Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    Trump’s Afghanistan policy

    US President Donald Trump unveiled a new strategy for Afghanistan in 2017, vowing to deploy more troops to train and advise Afghan security forces. Trump also pledged to support Afghan troops in their war against the Taliban and maintain US presence in the country for as long as there was a need for it. In 2019, he reversed course and promised a troop pullout.

  • Taliban Afghanistan Friedensprogramm (Getty Images/AFP/N. Shirzad)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    Afghan peace process

    Despite President Ghani’s offer in February 2018 for peace talks “without preconditions,” the Taliban had until 2019 shown no interest, dismissing the peace overtures as a “conspiracy.”

  • Afghanistan Kabul Protest gegen vermutete pakistanische Unterstützung der Taliban (DW/H. Hamraz)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    Pakistani support

    Pakistan has been under pressure from Kabul and Washington to stop offering safe havens to militants blamed for attacks in Afghanistan, a charge Islamabad denies and insists that its influence over the insurgents has been exaggerated. Kabul and Islamabad regularly trade accusations of harboring the other country’s militants and the harsh language has underscored the strains between them.

  •  Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (Reuters/O.Sobhani)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    Role of the warlords

    Apart from the Taliban, Afghan warlords exercise massive influence in the country. Last year, Hizb-i-Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar returned to Kabul after a 20-year exile to play an active role in Afghan politics. In September 2016, the Afghan government signed a deal with Hekmatyar in the hope that other warlords and militant groups would seek better ties with Kabul.

  • Polen Nato-Gipfel in Warschau - Ghani  Abdullah (Reuters/K. Pempel)

    The endless battle for power in Afghanistan

    An inefficient government

    In the midst of an endless battle for power, President Ghani’s approval ratings continue to plummet. Rampant corruption in the Afghan government and a long tug-of-war within the US-brokered national unity government has had a negative impact on the government’s efforts to eradicate terrorism.

    Author: Shamil Shams


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Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-trump-calling-off-taliban-talks-is-not-the-end/a-50347554?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

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