Tensions run high after Iran shoots down US drone

June 20, 2019

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed Thursday they shot down a US drone in the southern province of Hormozgan.

State news agency IRNA quoted the Guard’s news website, Sepah News, as saying that the Islamic country’s military force targeted the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone when it entered Iran’s airspace “near the Kouhmobarak district in the south.”

General Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said the incident sent “a clear message” to the US, adding that Iran does “not have any intention for war with any country, but we are ready for war.”

Responding swiftly to the Iranian claim, the US military said it had not violated Iranian airspace on Wednesday, saying that the drone was flying in international airspace some 34 kilometers (21 miles) from Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

“Iranian reports that the aircraft was over Iran are false,” the US military’s Central Command said in a statement. They also called the incident “an unprovoked attack on a US surveillance asset in international airspace.”

Read more: Iran-US tensions flare in the Persian Gulf: What’s at stake

Trump criticizes ‘loose and stupid’ decision

Addressing the dowing of the drone, US President Donald Trump tweeted, “Iran made a very big mistake.”

He later appeared to downplay the incident, saying that it might have been a mistake by someone on the Iranian side who was being “loose and stupid,” but added that the US “will not stand for it.”

When asked by reporters if the US will respond, Trump replied, “You’ll soon find out.”

The comments came amid a meeting between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House.

Last week the US confirmed a previous Iranian attempt to shoot down one of its drones.

Chart showing restrictions on Iran nuclear program

Rising tensions

Tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated over the past month, with the US accusing Iran of continued malign activity and unspecified threats against the United States and its allies. Washington has also increased its military presence in the region.

The US accused Iran last week of attacking Japanese and Norwegian flagged tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Washington released video and pictures purporting to show a Revolutionary Guard boat removing an unexploded limpet mine.

Iranian officials rejected US claims that Tehran was behind the blasts.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday there was “strong evidence” Iran was behind the twin tanker attacks.

Read more: EU warns against blaming Iran for oil tanker attacks

Deal under threat

Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal last year and reimposed harsh sanctions on Tehran that have hit oil exports and sent its economy into freefall.

On Monday, Iran warned that it would soon surpass the amount of enriched uranium allowed under the international deal, ratcheting up pressure on European signatories to save the accord.

Iran’s atomic energy agency also raised the prospect of increasing enrichment levels beyond the 3.67% level allowed under the deal for peaceful purposes.

Read more: Opinion: A Persian Gulf war can have no winners

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

The deal breaker

President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America’s “national interest.” The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Slap in the face

Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration’s withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Iran scrap ‘voluntary commitments’

A year to the day after Trump’s announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain “voluntary commitments.” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran’s oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Response to US pressure

The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a “clear unmistakable message.” Iran said it took action because the European Union and others “did not have the power to resist US pressure.”

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

A triumph of diplomacy

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Compliance and verification

The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran’s compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Obama’s achievement

The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the “worst deal ever.” The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn’t address other unrelated issues such as Iran’s ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for “terrorist” groups and human rights.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Iranians approved

The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump’s threats.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

The opponents

After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs’ assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Who’s left?

The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.