Will Fed pause? Will trade war thaw? Questions for 2019

Reporters and economists from Bloomberg Economics seek to answer the key questions for the world economy in 2019 .

This is arguably the biggest question confronting the global economy in 2019 .

The recent tightening in financial conditions and cooling global growth will not be enough to cause the Fed to pause rate hikes in 2019 .

The probability has increased of a no-deal Brexit, which the Bank of England says could have catastrophic consequences for the economy. While most economists still expect disaster to be avoided, even that won’t clear the way for gangbusters growth.

For the economy, the news would likely deliver a cyclical boost as more certainty, looser fiscal policy and faster real-income growth all help to raise gross domestic product growth to close to 2 percent.

Morgan Stanley even says such economies will return to drive world growth.

Economists share the ECB’s analysis that domestically driven growth is solid despite recent weak data, and predict the first increase in September.

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Article source: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/International/2018/Dec-29/472868-will-fed-pause-will-trade-war-thaw-questions-for-2019.ashx