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California Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing a recall — here’s what to know and why he’ll likely win

Five attempts to recall Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot since he was inaugurated in January 2019. The sixth try is led by Orrin Heatlie, a Republican and retired Yolo County sheriff’s sergeant, along with his group, the California Patriot Coalition. 

Mike Netter, co-founder of the group, said supporters of the recall effort are a cross-section of Republicans, independents and Democrats. 

“The effort is made up of Californians united under a specific cause to make for a better California,” Netter said. 

However, lists of endorsers and donors to the recall effort as well as the PPIC poll indicate that it is largely supported by committed Republicans. 

Most notably, Newt Gingrich, the Republican former House speaker from Georgia, has promoted the recall effort, according to CalMatters. Mike Huckabee, the Republican former governor of Arkansas, has contributed $175,000 through his PAC to the approximately $4.9 million raised in donations to the effort. 

While the recall effort was not initiated by the national or state GOP, the California Republican Party is also a major donor, having contributed $187,218, according to CalMatters.

The California Revival PAC, whose chair is the former chair of the California Republican Party, contributed $157,500, according to CalMatters.

Other major donors include venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, who contributed $100,000 to the effort.

However, the money raised by supporters of the recall is dwarfed by that raised by opponents. Anti-recall contributions stand at $22.8 million as of July 7.

The PPIC poll found that views on the recall among likely California voters are strongly linked to partisanship. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans said they would vote to recall Newsom, which is far more than the 47% of independents and 11% of Democrats who said they would. 

“There may be some Democrats and independents who support the recall effort, but the major area of support for the recall is definitely coming from Republicans,” said Baldassare. 

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/11/california-recall-election-what-to-know-about-gavin-newsoms-chances.html