Gavin Newsom set to remain as California governor after defeating recall effort, NBC News projects

“It appears that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats that has given so much life to the recall early on seems to have dissipated,” said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at three California universities who previously led the California Fair Political Practices Commission. 

“Newsom spent most of the summer trying to convince the Democratic base that [the recall] is worth their time and attention. And it’s clear from the polls that he’s been successful in those efforts,” Schnur added. 

This increased engagement among Democrats is also reflected in the rates of early mail-in ballot returns. 

The poll conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and The Los Angeles Times estimates that mail-in ballots will account for approximately half of the electorate. 

As of Saturday, registered Democratic voters made up about 52% of the nearly 7,800,000 ballots returned so far, according to daily data from Political Data Intelligence. Republicans lag far behind, only making up 25% of them. 

Republicans were expected to return ballots faster than Democrats due to their outsized interest in the recall election in the months prior, according to Soneff. Now, they are left scrambling to catch up. 

“Democrats have significantly outperformed Republicans in returning ballots up to this point and have opened up a colossal lead. Republicans are trying to close the gap and are definitely making some progress, but in the end, they’re not going to,” Soneff continued. 

While more than 14,470,000 ballots have yet to be returned, Soneff said the most-recent return rates are “undoubtedly a great start for Newsom.”

On election day, Republicans are expected to outperform Democrats in in-person voting, according to Soneff. 

This is also reflected in the poll conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and The Los Angeles Times. Of the likely voters who said they would vote in person on Election Day, 77% said they would vote to recall the governor. 

However, given the substantial Democratic lead in mail-in ballots so far, this is not expected to have a significant impact on the outcome of the election, according to Soneff. 

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/california-recall-gov-gavin-newsom-on-the-road-to-victory.html