Brexit: What’s happened and what’s next?

September 05, 2019

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s attempt to call a snap election failed to garner the support of two-thirds of lawmakers in the House of Commons on Wednesday — leaving the Brexit process in limbo.

It was his third defeat in Parliament in just two days — coming right after opposition MPs and rebels in Johnson’s Conservatives approved a bill that could force Johnson to ask the European Union for another Brexit delay, a step he has repeatedly said he would not take.

With Johnson losing his majority after expelling rebel Tory MPs and with time running out until the UK is due to leave the EU on October 31, here’s a look at what to look out for over the next few days:

What’s happening with the no-deal Brexit bill?

The bill was passed in the House of Commons. Now lawmakers in the upper chamber of Parliament, the House of Lords, will debate it. Time will be tight to get the bill approved, as Johnson has moved to suspend Parliament as of next week.

The House of Lords took part in a rare late night session on Wednesday, with pro-Brexit members threatening to try and stop the bill by talking so much that time runs out. The House of Lords agreed that all stages of the legislation would be completed by Friday at 5 p.m. That would give the House of Commons enough time to debate any amendments made by the upper house and send the legislation — if it passes again — to Queen Elizabeth II, who could put the law into effect by as soon as Monday.

The bill would force Johnson to delay Britain’s EU exit until January 31, unless Parliament approves a new deal or votes to support a no-deal Brexit by October 19 — which are both unlikely scenarios.

Is a no-deal Brexit off the table?

The UK could still crash out of the EU without a transition agreement — the only question would be when that would take place. The current bill only delays the issue, kicking the can down the road until January.

Any extension would also need the unanimous approval of the leaders of the remaining 27 EU member-states — and the British government would have to provide a valid reason for doing so.

Finnish Prime Minister Antti Rinne, whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency, said on Wednesday there isn’t enough widespread support among EU leaders to grant a third extension.

Although EU leaders are growing frustrated with the stalled process and preparing for a no-deal scenario, they’re also looking to avoid the likely economic catastrophe that would come with the UK leaving without a deal.

Besides a no-deal Brexit, the UK could also still leave with a deal that would smooth the transition, or it could call Brexit off altogether.

Is a snap election still on the horizon?

Despite Johnson’s failed bid to call a snap election, Britain could soon be headed to the polls. Once again, it’s a question of timing.

Johnson wanted to hold the election on October 15 — just a few days before an EU leaders summit in Brussels from October 17 to 18.

Opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn said he supports early elections, but only once the no-deal Brexit blocking bill has been passed. The Labour leader also reportedly said that he wouldn’t want to hold the election before the current Brexit deadline on October 31, according to the BBC.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

June 2016: ‘The will of the British people’

After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52 percent of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the “will of the British people” and resigned the following morning.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

July 2016: ‘Brexit means Brexit’

Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that “Brexit means Brexit.” May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain’s formal exit.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

March 2017: ‘We already miss you’

May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain’s ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain’s exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: “We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye.”

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

June 2017: And they’re off!

British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU’s timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain’s exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland

The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2

Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that “sufficient progress” had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be “dramatically difficult.”

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign

British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May’s Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a “combined customs territory” with the EU and signed up to a “common rulebook” on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

September 2018: No cherries for Britain

May’s Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: “A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries.” The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels

EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

December 2018: May survives rebellion

In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

January 2019: Agreement voted down

The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May’s Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain’s Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

March 2019: Second defeat for May’s deal

May tried to get legal changes to the deal’s so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

March 2019: Extension after second defeat

Following the second defeat of May’s divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time

On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May’s deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween

With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May’s deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a “flexible” extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn’t secured in time.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns

Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

June 2019: Search for a new Prime Minister

After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Hunt (right), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Johnson (left), one of the main proponents of Brexit.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson

At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May’s successor as British prime minister. “We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31,” he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain’s turbulent exodus from Europe

September 2019: Johnson’s election threat

Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.

Author: Alexander Pearson