German election: SPD makes major gains against Merkel’s CDU

For the first time in over four years, Germany’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have taken a lead over the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The CDU/CSU has been in a coalition government with the SPD for the past eight years.

In its latest monthly Deutschlandtrend survey, pollster infratest dimap on Thursday put the Social Democrats at 25% with the CDU/CSU at a historic low of only 20%. The SPD won 20.5% of the votes in the last general election in 2017, with the CDU/CSU taking 32.9% .

• Who could succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

  Armin Laschet

  CDU chairman Armin Laschet, a long-time supporter of Angela Merkel, heads Germany’s most populous state. Conservatives routinely underestimated the jovial 60-year-old, famous for his belief in integration and compromise. During the election campaign he has come across as vague and unfocussed and suffered in opinion polls following gaffes and slip-ups.

• Who could succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

  Annalena Baerbock

  At the age of 40, Annalena Baerbock has been a Green Party co-chair since 2018. A jurist with a degree in public international law from the London School of Economics, her supporters see her as a safe pair of hands with a good grasp of detail. Her opponents point to her lack of governing or ministerial experience and her occasional gaffes in interviews.

• Who could succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

  Olaf Scholz

  Plumbing new depths with each election, the SPD decided to run a realist rather than a radical as their top candidate in 2021. Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a former mayor of Hamburg, and Merkel’s deputy in the grand coalition, is seen as dry and technocratic. But the 62-year-old has seen a marked rise in opinion polls, as voters crave stability and a safe pair of hands.

  Author: Mark Hallam, Rina Goldenberg

The Green party, which was flying high in April this year, has also continued its downward turn and polled at 16%, the weakest showing since September 2018.

The pro-free market Free Democrats (FDP) stands at 13%, followed by the far-right populist AfD. The Left party remained unchanged at 6%.

These latest results open up a wide range of three-way coalition possibilities for government building after the September 26 election.

• German election 2021: Governing coalition options

  Deciphering the color code

  The center-right Christian Democrat CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU are symbolized by the color black. The center-left Social Democrat SPD is red, as is the communist Left Party. The pro-free market Free Democrats’ (FDP) color is yellow. And the Greens are self-explanatory. German media refer to the color combinations and national flags using them as shorthand for political combinations.

• German election 2021: Governing coalition options

  Black, red, green — the Kenya coalition

  A combination of center-right Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats has been in power for eight years. What was termed a “grand coalition” of two big tent parties will probably no longer have a majority. Taking in the Green Party would secure a comfortable majority. But with the SPD and CDU running neck-and-neck it’s not clear which party will be strongest — and name the chancellor.

• German election 2021: Governing coalition options

  Black, yellow and green — the Jamaica coalition

  The center-right Christian Democrats have often teamed up with the much smaller pro-free market Free Democrats (FDP) at the state and the national level over the years. Taking in the Greens to form a three-way coalition would be an option attractive to many in the CDU. But the Greens and the FDP do not make easy bedfellows, so a similar attempt failed after the last election in 2017.

• German election 2021: Governing coalition options

  Black, red, yellow — the Germany coalition

  The center-right CDU and the center-left SPD plus the pro-free market FDP. This combination would easily clear the 50% threshhold in parliament. It would be the preferred option for business leaders and high income earners. But if the SPD remains ahead of the conservatives, the order would be flipped, putting the SPD in the lead so we’d see red, black, yellow. A very different ballgame.

• German election 2021: Governing coalition options

  Red, red, green

  The Social Democrats teaming up with the Greens and the Left Party is a specter the conservatives like to raise when they perform badly in the polls. Such a combination might just about clinch 50% — if the Left Party manages to clear the 5% hurdle to get into parliament. But the SPD and Left Party have a difficult history. And the Left’s extreme foreign policy positions would hamper negotiations.

• German election 2021: Governing coalition options

  Red ,yellow, green — a ‘traffic light’ coalition

  The free-market-oriented liberal FDP, has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats, and the Greens. But this year the FDP is not ruling out any options. Germany’s traditional kingmaker party is above all keen to return to power — no matter in which color combination.

  Author: Rina Goldenberg

How will the election work?

Germans don’t vote directly for the head of government, the chancellor. After 16 years in office, Chancellor Angela Merkel is stepping down, although she still tops approval ratings in the latest survey.

But Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, the SPD’s top candidate, is not far behind her in the Deutschlandtrend popularity ratings.

He is by far the most popular of the three candidates for chancellor. Compared to his competitors — Armin Laschet for the CDU/CSU and Annalena Baerbock for the Greens — Scholz is seen as the most likable and credible. He is also considered to have the best leadership skills.

The SPD candidate’s popularity has directly benefited the party. A quarter of those who said they would vote for the SPD said it was mainly because of their belief in Scholz and his leadership qualities.

Voters are most likely to back the SPD when it comes to ensuring adequate wages, long-term security for pensions and a good policies on family and child care. The CDU/CSU continues to win over most voters in the area of economic policy and in dealing with the COVID crisis. As before, the Greens are considered to have the greatest competence in environmental and climate policy.

Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-spd-makes-major-gains-against-merkel-s-cdu/a-59066377?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf