Syria: What does Turkey’s ‘resettlement’ plan mean?

As joint Turkish-Russian military patrol begins on Friday, security in northern Syria remains fragile, despite the Sochi Agreement reached by the two countries.

Nevertheless, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eager to send Syrian refugees back. Currently Turkey hosts around 3.6 million Syrian refugees.

Erdogan plans to send at least 1 million of these refugees, if not more, to the so-called safe zone — the area over which Turkey gained control through its Peace Spring military operation. However, Turkish authorities insist resettlement will only be voluntary.

Turkey is already being criticized for forcing Syrian refugees to leave, according to a recent Amnesty International report. The Turkish government strongly rejects this.

A ‘feasible scenario’ only if unforced

Andreas Nick, a Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lawmaker who also sits on the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German parliament, told DW that offering a perspective for people who originate from that region to return to their homelands “would be a feasible scenario but we will not be supportive of any forced resettlement of refugees.” He underlined that any resettlement would have to take place according to international law and that “there will be no economic support from Europe or Germany for any forced resettlement measures.”

At 120 kilometers (75 miles) long and 32 kilometers deep, the zone now controlled by the Turkish military is much smaller than Erdogan’s original plan that would have stretched 444 kilometers. So the numbers of people returning is also expected to be lower.

According to the Turkish Interior Ministry, nearly 330,000 Syrian refugees have returned to Afrin, following Operation Euphrates Shield last year.

Read more: Europeans ‘should be thankful to our soldiers,’ says Erdogan spokesperson

However, Syria expert Oytun Orhan of the Ankara-based Middle East Research Center (ORSAM) says there is “high probability that many of these people have returned to Turkey via illegal migration since they couldn’t find what they hoped for and are now living as unregistered refugees in Turkey.”

Orhan also argues that if returns are to be voluntary “the numbers won’t be millions.” He points out that “of the 3.6 million Syrians, only 10% to 15% come from east of the Euphrates. So if we expect people to return to their local homes, a maximum of 400,000 to 500,000 could be expected to go back.”

Turkish opposition politician Umit Ozdag of the nationalist Iyi Party states otherwise, telling DW that “there is confusion about voluntary returns.” He argues that the Temporary Protection Regulation adopted in 2014 is clear on the issue of such repatriations: “When the war ends, the Syrians will have to return to their homes. So whoever says this is voluntary, that’s not correct.”

Refugees just a bargaining chip for Ankara?

Turkey started allowing Syrian refugees into the country in 2012, with the start of the civil war. But in recent years, due to the economic problems Turkey is facing, negative sentiment towards Syrian refugees has increased. 

President Erdogan wants to win back voters by finding a solution to the refugee problem, so he often threatens the European Union with respect to the refugee resettlement deal Ankara signed with the bloc in 2016. The Turkish strongman has often threatened that his country would “open the doors”  to further refugees entering Europe, which raises fears in many EU countries of a new wave of refugees, that could top the numbers of arrivals in 2015.

Sevim Dağdelen, deputy leader of the Left parliamentary group in Germany’s Bundestag, is critical of the EU’s approach. She says that instead of investing billions in Turkey as the “doorkeeper for defense against refugees, the money should be invested in the reconstruction of Syria.”

‘International security zone’ still on the table

For the German government, a political solution in Syria remains a priority. Even though German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s proposal for an international “security zone” has not found support domestically or internationally, CDU seems to still be eyeing the option of international engagement in northern Syria. The party’s lawmaker Nick is convinced that the topic will be a part of regular consultations leading up to the NATO summit in London at the end of the year.

Pointing to the recent military confrontations between Turkish troops and Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces and referring to the deal struck in Sochi, Nick said: “One has to carefully observe whether that Turkish-Russian agreement is really a stable situation for the region that will allow for civilian initiatives and reconstruction. I’m pretty skeptical that will be the case.”

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  A first stop

  UN sources say over 200,000 people have been internally displaced in Syria’s northeast since Turkey launched its offensive on October 9. So far, the border town of Ras al-Ayn has paid the highest toll in the wake of a joint attack by Turkish militias and airstrikes. The city will remain under Turkish control following a deal struck in Sochi between Russia and Turkey.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  ‘We’ve lost everything’

  A majority of those who have fled are reportedly Kurds. Those civilians remaining in the city are mostly Arabs who are still in touch by phone with their former neighbors. “They told me yesterday that the Islamists were looting our house. We’ve lost everything,” this man told DW.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  Every crumb helps

  The regime forces are stationed just a few kilometers away from Tal Tamr. As a result international NGOs formerly based in the area have fled over the past few days. Internally displaced people (IDPs) from Ras al-Ayn and the neighboring villages rely on the work of local NGOs who are struggling to cope with the crisis.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  Not enough to go around

  Apart from Tal Tamr, other villages in the vicinity are also hosting hundreds of displaced people who rely on local NGOs. “They’re settling in empty villages, many of them too close to other locations controlled by either the Turkish-backed militias or ‘Islamic State’ sleeper cells,” Hassan Bashir, a local NGO coordinator, told DW.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  Food, glorious food

  This Arab IDP from Ras al-Ayn has four wives but will struggle to get enough to feed all their children as local NGOs say they can only allocate a single food ration per family. “It’s not their fault, they’re just children,” he told DW, after being given a single bag of food rations.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  School’s out — forever?

  Schools have remained shut across Syria’s northeast since the beginning of the offensive and several of them are now hosting IDPs from Ras al-Ayn. Those who can afford it will move to cities like Al-Hasakah, around 80 kilometers (50 miles) to the south, but others will have to cope with the dire conditions in a border city that faces further attacks from the north.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  The closest thing to home

  50 Kurdish families from Ras al-Ayn are now living in this abandoned school in Tal Tamr lacking both water and electricity. As the sanitary conditions deteriorate, local doctors and the hospital in Tal Tamr fear an outbreak of cholera and other diseases. “If we continue like this we’ll have to get set for a huge humanitarian crisis,” a local doctor told DW.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  Sick and stranded

  Although the hospital in Tal Tamr is treating the wounded, it cannot help those suffering from diseases such as cancer.Two IDPs told DW that they were supposed to receive chemotherapy in Damascus before the offensive started, but that the current security situation makes it impossible for them to get there.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  A different type of playground

  The Christian village of Tell Nasri on the outskirts of Tal Tamr had remained empty since IS took over the area. The majority of its former inhabitants left during the IS siege when the militants destroyed the churches with explosives before the fall of the Caliphate. With nowhere else to go, several IDP families from Ras al-Ayn are now settling in Tell Nasri.

• Syrian civilians bear the brunt of Turkey’s offensive

  Living on a prayer

  These boys are among dozens stranded in Tell Nasri but the dire living conditions are the least of their problems. Just before this picture was taken, settlers told DW that they had been attacked from a neighboring village reportedly in the hands of Islamists. “They started shooting at us and we engaged [with them] for over an hour,” a fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces told DW.

  Author: Karlos Zurutuza (Tal Tamr)

Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/syria-what-does-turkey-s-resettlement-plan-mean/a-51082589?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf