Tigray region’s defiance puts strains on Ethiopia’s unity
On Monday, about a dozen people, including four journalists and a senior analyst, were barred from boarding a flight to Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray Region. Three more journalists reported that they had received calls warning them not to attempt to travel to cover the elections.
Led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the federal government postponed the general election in March because of the coronavirus pandemic. The decision was supported by his Prosperity Party and major opposition parties.
The government of the Tigray region refused to abide by the decision, seeing the postponement as an attempt by Abiy, the 2019 Nobel Peace laureate, to prolong his hold on power and curtail the region’s autonomy.
Read more: Political tensions rise ahead of Ethiopia’s planned regional elections
“[Tigrayans] forget that there is a real pandemic going on,” said Jan Abbink, a professor of politics and governance at the African Studies Centre at Leiden University.
On Saturday, the House of Federation, the upper chamber of Ethiopia’s legislature, unanimously declared elections for the regional parliament “unconstitutional” and the results “therefore void.” But the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which governs the region, is expected to press ahead with the vote for a new administration.
Officials for both the federal and regional governments see themselves as following Ethiopia’s constitution and the rule of law. The Tigrayan political scientist Yemane Zerai told DW that there was little point to legalistic theorizing. “The political relations will determine the relationship,” he said, “which can lead us into a peaceful coexistence or it can take us to total disengagement, which can lead to the disintegration of the Ethiopian state — or at least to the separation of the Tigrayan state.”
Electoral campaigning in Mekelle proceeded in defiance of Addis Ababa
Domino effect
Relations between the TPLF and the federal government have deteriorated markedly since the former refused to join the prime minister’s Prosperity Party when it was formed in 2019. “We know there is an open threat by Abiy to militarily intervene against Tigray and to cut funds, but we will still go ahead with the vote,” said Getachew Reda, the TPLF spokesman and a former federal information minister.
According to an analysis by the International Crisis Group think tank, Abiy told a local media outlet that talk of a military intervention in the Tigray region was “insane” and said there were no plans for one under any circumstances. But he has repeatedly said there would be consequences, without going into details.
Since taking power in 2018, Abiy has liberalized the politics and economy of Ethiopia. But ethnic tension and outbreaks of violence have followed his changes as politicians in the provinces try to assert their authority against that of the federal government.
The TPLF has cast the election as a question of safeguarding democratic rights and autonomy. On the streets of Mekelle, opinions are divided. “This is a way to show the world and Ethiopia that we are helping to secure our self-administration rights,” resident Leake Zegeye told DW.
But Merha Selam Meressa told DW that he was afraid of what might result from this act of defiance. “The situation is not good,” he said. “It could lead us to a conflict.”
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Starting over again
Authorities have started returning home some of the hundreds of thousands of ethnic Gedeos who fled attacks in Ethiopia’s southern Oromia region, which is mainly populated by ethnic Oromos. But humanitarian organizations accuse the government of forcing Gedeos back to villages where they have lost everything – and still don’t feel safe.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Critical shortages of land
About two months ago, the streets of Hinche – nestled in the green hills of West Guji zone – were empty. Now, almost all of the ethnic Gedeos who used to live here have come back after fleeing ethnic violence last year. West Guji is part of the Oromia region, and home to a majority of ethnic Oromos. The long-simmering conflict is primarily about land ownership.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Accusations of forced returns
The residents of Hinche, as well as other ethnic Gedeos, were left with little choice but to return to their village after the government razed the refugee camps and limited humanitarian aid in the Gedeo zone. Observers accuse authorities of organizing ‘forced returns’, which they say will aggravate an already tense situation.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Dwellings looted and razed
Zele is happy to be back home with his wife and six children. However, life here in Hinche is very difficult, especially as the rainy season starts settling in. Zele’s house was destroyed and his belongings stolen in the violence, so he built this shelter. The family lives off monthly food aid of around 40kg of grain and 2 liters of oil.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Fear of futher attacks
Most of the returnees are farmers but haven’t been able to cultivate their land since they have returned. Dingete is now working as a daily laborer to feed her four children. “Our farm is far from here, and I am afraid to go there because some people said they saw the Oromo armed groups in the area,” she says.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Reconciliation efforts
Local authorities claim security isn’t a problem. They say elders have settled the issues and militias and communities are working together to identify wrongdoers. “Gedeos and [Oromos] believe we are brothers, and we live together. They have the same values, the same market, they marry each other,” says Aberra Buno, the chief administrator of the West Guji zone.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Lack of justice
Many Gedeos are frustrated about what they perceive as a lack of justice. In Cherqo, more than 1,000 people fled, and almost all of the houses were destroyed. “Those who committed these things have not been arrested or faced justice – not a single person has been captured so far,” says Abebe, Cherqo’s administrator. The Guji police say they have arrested more than 200 people over the violence.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Forgotten about
Authorities say they have returned almost 100% those displaced in the Gedeo-Guji violence. However, thousands of people originally from the East Guji zone still live in camps in the Gedeo zone, seemingly forgotten. Food aid was stopped more than two months ago. Hundreds of children live in alarming conditions and don’t go to school.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Disease and malnutrition
“We are starving, people suffer from diarrhea, our children have to go to the streets and collect food in the garbage and bring it to their families,” say Almaz, who has been living in this camp in Dilla in the Gedeo zone for more than a year.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Food aid stopped
Authorities in the Gedeo zone say they have requested food from the federal government, and then they can return the families to East Guji. But many Gedeo people don’t feel safe going back. There were more reports of killings of ethnic Gedeos in East Guji at the end of May.
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Ethiopia’s neglected crisis
Incomplete statistics
Humanitarian organizations say thousands of Gedeos who fled their homes in the West Guji zone are living in informal settlements or renting houses. They are difficult to keep track of and thus don’t appear in official statistics. Nor do they receive any aid.
Though he acknowledged the potential for violence, Abbink said he did not think it would come in the form of a military intervention by the central government. “Knowing the leadership’s aims and the style of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, it is unlikely that he will do it,” he said. “He will try to keep the dialogue going, in the hope that some modus vivendi will be worked out.”
Many analysts believe that the sides could find a compromise in which the TPLF would agree to hold a second election as soon as the pandemic is under control and the federal government would work with the election winners in the meantime.
Read more: Ethiopia’s democratization at risk
The TPLF’s struggle
There is a real danger stemming from this situation. “It may well be that other regions, like the Somali Region, the Oromia Region, the Amhara Region, will be inclined to say, ‘Well, if the Tigray holds elections, I can do the same,'” Abbink said.
“This doesn’t apply to most of Abiy’s allies in the government,” he said, “but as far as what we might call ethnonationalism goes, there are a few in the Oromia and Amhara regions who really want to increase autonomy and they may put pressure on the government.”
This is particularly true for the TPLF. “It is obvious that Tigray has a real problem and it’s struggling to reinvent itself in terms of its role within the Ethiopian federation,” Abbink said. Despite representing an ethnic minority, The TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition for nearly three decades before anti-government protests led to Abiy’s appointment as prime minister in 2018. Having lost its national prominence, the TPLF turned inward.
Read more: In test run for 2020 elections, Ethiopia’s government wrangles with ethnonationalism
“They have been disengaging themselves from the federal level,” Abbink said. “If you talk about Tigray members of the government being sacked, the problem was that they never came to meetings. They didn’t do their jobs. They had no willingness of being a part of the federal government.”
Military parades have been held in various cities of Tigray in recent weeks
In the past six months, Zerai said, the government of the Tigray region has instituted what he considers ade facto state. “The institutional establishments that we have seen, the laws that are being enacted in Tigray and the actions which are being taken in mobilizing the people show that it is separating from the federal government,” he said. He pointed out, however, that — contrary to other regions of Ethiopia — Tigray has experienced peace.
Miilion Haileselassie contributed to this article.
Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/tigray-region-s-defiance-puts-strains-on-ethiopia-s-unity/a-54848990?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf