Ukraine: Will it receive German tanks?

It will be showdown time in the German federal parliament, the Bundestag, this Thursday: Lawmakers will be debating German assistance for Ukraine. And there are indications that a majority is in favor of delivering modern tanks — something Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his social democrat party seem reluctant to do.

The largest opposition party, the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), are putting forward a motion for the delivery of Western-designed battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from industrial stocks to Ukraine. 

The motion, titled “Defending peace and freedom in Europe — Supporting Ukraine resolutely with heavy weapons now,” will be debated in the Bundestag this Thursday. If it is put to a vote, this could reveal cracks in the governing coalition, as many deputies from the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) deputies are also in favor.

Impact of developments on the battlefield

In a surprise announcement, the German defense ministry said in mid-September that it would deliver 50 armored Dingo transport vehicles to Ukraine. They would offer frontline Ukrainian soldiers protection from Russian fire.

Ukraine has been calling for western tanks to use in its fight against the Russian attackers for months. After Kyiv’s most recent military success in the country’s northeast, the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase.

“Ukraine currently lacks the equipment to successfully carry out counterattacks, especially in this vast, spacious grassland region. That is why Ukraine is looking for so much help with battle tanks and armored personnel carriers,” Nico Lange, an analyst at the Munich Security Conference and expert on eastern Europe told DW.

The pressure on Germany to supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine is growing.

Ukraine’s army has recaptured territory in the East and South East of the country

But in mid-September, the Bundeswehr Inspector General Eberhard Zorn, Germany’s highest-ranking soldier, downplayed Ukraine’s military success in the northeast of the country in an interview with Focus news magazine. “I am cautious about using such terms,” Zorn said, referring to the Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive which had been praised by the US and UK. In the same interview, Zorn warned of Russian attacks on the Baltic States or Finland.

The former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, labeled Zorn’s statements a “stunningly poor analysis of Russian capabilities.” According to Hodges, who lives in Germany, Finland alone would crush Russian forces in their current state. And Lithuania and Poland, which neighbor the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea coast, could “smother” it “in a week.” Most western analysts agree with the US general.

Within Germany’s government, the restrained Social Democrats (the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz) are facing increasing pressure from their coalition partners – the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP). In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper,

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock from the Greens said: “In this decisive phase which Ukraine now finds itself in, I do not consider this to be a decision that should be dragged out  for a long time.” In any case, the delivery of “modern battle tanks” like the Leopard 2 can only be decided collaboratively “in a coalition and internationally”, Baerbock said.

She has continually spoken out in favor of solidarity with Ukraine.

This sounds very much like a proposal by the Berlin-based think tank theEuropean Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) for a “Leopard 2 Plan” which is currently making the rounds in the German capital.

According to that plan, European countries who have the Leopard 2 in stock should form a group to provide Ukraine with 90 battle-ready tanks. “After supporting Ukraine’s urban defensive fight and boosting its long-range strike capabilities, they should equip its armed forces for maneuver warfare. Heavy armor will be crucial in this next phase of the war,” analysts Gustav Gressel, Rafael Loss, and Jana Puglierin wrote.

The German government should create a “consortium of European Leopard 2 users” for this purpose. According to the report’s authors, 12 European armies and Turkey have more than 2,000 various Leopard 2 tanks between them.

For Nico Lange from the Munich Security Conference, “an association of several European nations that have Leopard 2 battle tanks,” could be a way to support Ukraine “on an equal footing” with the US. So far, Washington has delivered the most weapons to Ukraine by a large margin.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the training site for Ukrainian soldiers in Germany

German weapons deliveries to date

Berlin is reluctant to provide exact figures showing its deliveries of the most modern weapons systems. In addition to 50 Dingo armored personnel carriers, Ukraine is said to have received an unspecified number of Cobra artillery radar systems and Iris-T air defense systems.

The German defense ministry was more precise when it came to the delivery of 20 anti-aircraft “Gepard” tanks, for which Berlin received recognition from the US and Ukraine.

The Ukrainian soldiers who will operate the tanks were trained in Germany over the European summer. The delivery of an additional 10 Gepard tanks is currently in progress, according to the ministry.

Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht, from Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat party (SPD), also announced that Germany would send two more Mars II multiple rocket launchers, including 200 rockets.

Germany is currently working through a list of military supplies with more than two dozen items on it. A majority will come straight from German weapons producers, not from Bundeswehr stocks. These include armored recovery vehicles, bridge-laying tanks, as well as hundreds of trucks and trailers.

According to the federal government, Germany approved arms exports to Ukraine worth more than 733 million Euros between January 1 and September 19 this year.

This article was originally written in German.

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Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-will-it-receive-german-tanks/a-63191358?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-xml-atom