What will Israel’s West Bank annexation plans mean for the region?
Speculation is rife as to whether Israel will proceed with the originally envisioned plan or with an “annexation light” in the occupied West Bank.
The opaque situation has left young Palestinian millennials like Salem Barahmeh in the West Bank city of Ramallah utterly frustrated. “I come from the Oslo generation, we were promised a state and never got one,” says Barahmeh, executive director of the Palestine Institute for Public Diplomacy, an independent NGO in Ramallah. “We are extremely frustrated and angry, but we are also disappointed that the world hasn’t been listening to us: the land has been settled for very long and you have done nothing about it.”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emboldened by the US Mideast plan released in January, has vowed to annex the Jordan Valley in addition to 135 settlements that are already considered illegal by the international community — an estimated 30% of the occupied West Bank. Now, the Israeli government is reportedly considering annexing several other settlements first, such as Maale Adumim, near Jerusalem and the settlement bloc of Gush Etzion, which comprises several smaller settlements in the southern West Bank.
Read more: Opinion: Trump’s Middle East ‘peace plan’ delivers neither
Monumental moment
Hamas has warned that further annexation would be a “declaration of war”
“We are facing a rather monumental moment in the region,” said Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, in remarks to foreign media in Jerusalem last week. He warned that the unilateral move would contradict international law and several United Nations Security Council resolutions. The move would also jeopardize the long sought two-state solution.
A recent survey by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center and the German Friedrich Ebert-Foundation showed that around 45% of Palestinians believe that annexation would not leave any chance for a two-state solution. Salem Barahmeh also highlighted current threats to a two-state solution. The Palestinian Authority (PA) administers only 18% of the territory, while Israel maintains overall control. “Israel controls the movement, the water, the utilities and enters towns and villages every night to arrest people. At the moment, we live under a one state reality, where Israel controls everybody between the river and the sea,” he added.
Israeli public opinion split
Surveys show contradictory findings on Israeli public opinion regarding annexation. “There is a small majority among Israeli Jews that supports some form of annexation but there is no agreement on what kind of annexation. But public opinion is amenable to change,” says Ofer Zalzberg, analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Public opinion is likely to shift, he adds, depending on what position Netanyahu’s coalition partner, Defense Minister Benny Gantz (Blue and White) takes. Gantz appears to oppose the Jordan Valley annexation against the backdrop of the expected international fallout. Conversely, a poll by the Geneva Initiative in early June found that people were mostly concerned about the economic impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Among those surveyed, only a minority thought that annexation should be a current priority for the Israeli government.
Adar Keish and Tair Rosenblat are volunteers at Darkenu, an Israeli, left-leaning grass-roots organization. Their protest slogan “no to annexation, yes to economy, yes to security,” highlights the concern about the timing of the annexation. Tair thinks the government shouldn’t proceed unilaterally. “We don’t have the money to deal with this issue right now. But also, we care about the people on the other side and we do want them to be a part of the process.” Keish, meanwhile, says that the reactions they’ve received show that many people are still not aware of what’s at stake. “The feeling I get is that people don’t really know what we are talking about. I think the problem is that the conflict has been around for such a long time that people just become oblivious to it.”
‘Declaration of war’
In Ramallah, the Palestinian leadership has halted all working agreements with Israel, including security and civilian coordination. In recent days, some Palestinian officials have also hinted at dissolving the Palestinian Authority, which was created in 1994 as a result of of the Oslo Accords. Although Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh has committed to maintain law and order, his government’s difficult financial situation has exacerbated political tensions. The PA has recently been unable to pay salaries due to Israel’s withholding of tax and customs revenues it ordinarily transfers to the Palestinians. In Hamas-ruled Gaza, the group’s military wing has warned that any annexation would be considered a “declaration of war.”
Read more: How will Arab states react to Israel’s annexation plans?
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A history of the Middle East peace process
UN Security Council Resolution 242, 1967
United Nations Security Council Resolution 242, passed on November 22, 1967, called for the exchange of land for peace. Since then, many of the attempts to establish peace in the region have referred to 242. The resolution was written in accordance with Chapter VI of the UN Charter, under which resolutions are recommendations, not orders.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Camp David Accords, 1978
A coalition of Arab states, led by Egypt and Syria, fought Israel in the Yom Kippur or October War in October 1973. The conflict eventually led to the secret peace talks that yielded two agreements after 12 days. This picture from March 26, 1979, shows Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, his US counterpart Jimmy Carter and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin after signing the accords in Washington.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
The Madrid Conference, 1991
The US and the former Soviet Union came together to organize a conference in the Spanish capital city of Madrid. The discussions involved Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestinians — not from the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) — who met with Israeli negotiators for the first time. While the conference achieved little, it did create the framework for later, more productive talks.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Oslo I Accord, 1993
The negotiations in Norway between Israel and the PLO, the first direct meeting between the two parties, resulted in the the Oslo I Accord. The agreement was signed in the US in September 1993. It demanded that Israeli troops withdraw from West Bank and Gaza and a self-governing, interim Palestinian authority be set up for a five-year transitional period. A second accord was signed in 1995.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Camp David Summit Meeting, 2000
US President Bill Clinton invited Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat to the retreat in July 2000 to discuss borders, security, settlements, refugees and Jerusalem. Despite the negotiations being more detailed than ever before, no agreement was concluded. The failure to reach a consensus at Camp David was followed by renewed Palestinian uprising, the Second Intifada.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
The Arab Peace Initiative, 2002
The Camp David negotiations were followed first by meetings in Washington and then in Cairo and Taba, Egypt — all without results. Later the Arab League proposed the Arab Peace Initiative in Beirut in March 2002. The plan called on Israel to withdraw to pre-1967 borders so that a Palestinian state could be set up in the West Bank and Gaza. In return, Arab countries would agree to recognize Israel.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
The Roadmap, 2003
The US, EU, Russia and the UN worked together as the Middle East Quartet to develop a road map to peace. While Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas accepted the text, his Israeli counterpart Ariel Sharon had more reservations with the wording. The timetable called for a final agreement on a two-state solution to be reached in 2005. Unfortunately, it was never implemented.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Annapolis, 2007
In 2007 US President George W. Bush hosted a conference in Annapolis, Maryland, to relaunch the peace process. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas took part in talks with officials from the Quartet and over a dozen Arab states. It was agreed that further negotiations would be held with the goal of reaching a peace deal by the end of 2008.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Washington, 2010
In 2010, US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to and implement a ten-month moratorium on settlements in disputed territories. Later, Netanyahu and Abbas agreed to relaunch direct negotiations to resolve all issues. Negotiations began in Washington in September 2010, but within weeks there was a deadlock.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Cycle of escalation and ceasefire continues
A new round of violence broke out in and around Gaza late 2012. A ceasefire was reached between Israel and those in power in the Gaza Strip, which held until June 2014. The kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers in June 2014 resulted in renewed violence and eventually led to the Israeli military operation Protective Edge. It ended with a ceasefire on August 26, 2014.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Paris summit, 2017
Envoys from over 70 countries gathered in Paris, France, to discuss the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Netanyahu slammed the discussions as “rigged” against his country. Neither Israeli nor Palestinian representatives attended the summit. “A two-state solution is the only possible one,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said at the opening of the event.
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Deteriorating relations in 2017
Despite the year’s optimistic opening, 2017 brought further stagnation in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. A deadly summer attack on Israeli police at the Temple Mount, a site holy to both Jews and Muslims, sparked deadly clashes. Then US President Donald Trump’s plan to move the embassy to Jerusalem prompted Palestinian leader Abbas to say “the measures … undermine all peace efforts.”
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A history of the Middle East peace process
Trump’s peace plan backfires, 2020
US President Donald Trump presented a peace plan that freezes Israeli settlement construction but retains Israeli control over most of the illegal settlements it has already built. The plan would double Palestinian-controlled territory, but asks Palestine to cross a red line and accept the previously constructed West Bank settlements as Israeli territory. Palestine rejected the plan outright.
While high level meetings continue between US and Israeli officials, the EU seems unprepared for a definitive response. Some EU officials in Jerusalem privately predict a lack of unanimity on the matter within the EU.
Nonetheless, among the measures being discussed behind closed doors are reportedly suspending Israel’s participation in EU-funded scientific research programs or banning settlement products, or even limiting Israel’s privileged trade agreement with the EU. In several statements over the past months, Joseph Borrell, the EU’ s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, had said that any annexation of any part of the occupied West Bank violates international law.
Article source: https://www.dw.com/en/what-will-israel-s-west-bank-annexation-plans-mean-for-the-region/a-53996910?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf