NBC News review of Iowa caucus vote finds potential errors, inconsistencies

The Decision Desk said it identified at least 77 precincts, or 4.5 percent, where the total votes for what is known as “reallocated candidate preference” is greater than the total votes for “initial candidate preference” — a difference that makes no sense.

In the Iowa caucus system, the reallocated preference is based on the raw tally taken after the process of realignment. For instance, if a caucusgoer’s initial preferred candidate did not receive enough support to meet the precinct location’s viability threshold (15 percent in most cases), the caucusgoer is allowed to shift their support — or realign — to another candidate who did attain viability.

Therefore, it doesn’t make sense that the number of voters would increase during this process. If anything, it might decline since caucusgoers whose initial preference didn’t make viability might chose to simply leave, rather than sticking around to support another candidate.

And yet the number of voters appears to have increased in precinct Des Moines-62 in Polk County. The total of votes recorded for initial preference was 784 — but the total number of votes in the precinct on the reallocated preference vote increased to 841. It is unclear how to explain an increase between rounds because the initial preference is supposed to include the votes of everyone who is participating in the caucus. The initial preference should reflect the total turnout in the caucus.

The Decision Desk said it identified at least 77 precincts, or 4.5 percent, where the total votes for what is known as “reallocated candidate preference” is greater than the total votes for “initial candidate preference” — a difference that makes no sense.

In the Iowa caucus system, the reallocated preference is based on the raw tally taken after the process of realignment. For instance, if a caucusgoer’s initial preferred candidate did not receive enough support to meet the precinct location’s viability threshold (15 percent in most cases), the caucusgoer is allowed to shift their support — or realign — to another candidate who did attain viability.

Therefore, it doesn’t make sense that the number of voters would increase during this process. If anything, it might decline since caucusgoers whose initial preference didn’t make viability might chose to simply leave, rather than sticking around to support another candidate.

And yet the number of voters appears to have increased in precinct Des Moines-62 in Polk County. The total of votes recorded for initial preference was 784 — but the total number of votes in the precinct on the reallocated preference vote increased to 841. It is unclear how to explain an increase between rounds because the initial preference is supposed to include the votes of everyone who is participating in the caucus. The initial preference should reflect the total turnout in the caucus.

Some of the discrepancies are a result of zero votes being reported for the initial preference. In the Des Moines-80 precinct, for example, there were zero total reported votes on the initial preference vote and 215 total votes on the reallocated preference vote.

Because the precinct has no votes recorded for candidates on the initial preference round it is impossible to know whether the reallocation was correctly done in the precinct. Moreover, because the precinct is not contributing any votes to the total candidate votes on the initial preference ballot the statewide percentages for candidates doing well in this precinct also will be understated.

Some of the discrepancies are a result of zero votes being reported for the initial preference. In the Des Moines-80 precinct, for example, there were zero total reported votes on the initial preference vote and 215 total votes on the reallocated preference vote.

Because the precinct has no votes recorded for candidates on the initial preference round it is impossible to know whether the reallocation was correctly done in the precinct. Moreover, because the precinct is not contributing any votes to the total candidate votes on the initial preference ballot the statewide percentages for candidates doing well in this precinct also will be understated.

Other precincts, however, have discrepancies that are more irregular than simply failing to report any data for the initial preference vote.

In precinct WDM-312 in Polk County, there were only 61 total votes reported in the initial preference round, but there were 339 total votes reported in the reallocated preference round.

Looking at the pattern of recorded votes suggests that no initial preference votes were recorded for any of the viable candidates, but only for candidates who had not attained viability — which is not how the process is supposed to work. Because the date was not reported, it is therefore impossible to know what the initial preference votes were for viable candidates in this precinct, nor how voters changed between initial preference and reallocated preference.

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/nbc-news-review-of-iowa-caucus-vote-finds-potential-errors-inconsistencies.html