Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will knock the Russian economy back by 30 years
“Once companies leave [Russia] they take some costs and book them on their accounts. And then there’s an environment where you’ve already taken these losses, so it’s a lot harder to convince your risk committee to go back in,” said Hess.
Given the direct impact that sanctions are having on the business climate in Russia, securing a full or partial lifting of them is key to making American companies want to come back.
But none of the experts who spoke to CNBC for this story believe that any of the current sanctions against Russia or Belarus are going to be eased or lifted for at least the next three years.
“Until you have a new leader in Russia, one who apologizes for invading Ukraine and who writes a check for reparations, these sanctions are going to remain in place,” said Smart, of Barings. “And I don’t see any of the three things I just described happening.”
Underscoring this is the fact that the current sanctions do not even contain any language about what Russia could do to convince Washington to lift them.
For Smart, the best way to understand the Western effort to isolate Russia is to view it as a long-term strategic move, within a 10- to 20-year window.
Russia “is the 11th largest economy in the world, and we’re about to seal it up in a container and not do business with it for the foreseeable future,” he said.
For everyday Russians, the coming months will test how much of the modern world they are willing to give up to further Putin’s ambitions of control over Eastern Europe.
“Until recently, [Putin’s] whole program was relatively popular,” said Ickes, of Penn State. “It’s the last two weeks where there’s been a major shift.”
“Now the loss of international travel is painful. And the loss of the internet is painful. And your debit card doesn’t work anymore. That’s a big, big, big, deal,” he said.
Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/putins-invasion-of-ukraine-will-knock-the-russian-economy-back-by-30-years.html