Putin’s popularity soared after Russia invaded Crimea. This time, it’s different

With the economic pain likely to be much harsher this time round, analysts say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to give Putin a popularity boost.

His popularity ratings in February stood at 69%, according to the Levada Center, but that was a poll of 1,626 Russian adults conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2 — that is, before Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed and before Russia conceded that its own military had seen casualties during its assault.

It’s hard to get an accurate death toll on either side — Russia does not publish such figures — but an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Saturday that around 3,500 Russian soldiers had been killed or injured so far during the invasion, Reuters reported. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister put the number higher on Sunday, at 4,300, but said the figure had not been verified.

Max Hess, senior political risk analyst at AKE International, told CNBC he didn’t believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would boost Putin’s popularity, noting “it certainly won’t have any impact like after Crimea, not at all.”

“Even if it all ends now … it seems already — based on Ukraine numbers — that probably more Russians have died [during the invasion of Ukraine] than died in the Chechen conflict in the ’90s,” he said Monday.

Hess likened the war between Russia and Ukraine as “a fratricidal war” in a number of ways and particularly given the close historical ties between the neighbors, which has lent an ambivalence to Russian attitudes toward the invasion. Indeed, there have been protests in Russia against the armed incursion.

Noting how he had spoken to a range of people about Russia’s invasion, Hess said that, anecdotally, he was shocked to hear how fast “faith has evaporated in Putin.”

Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, has noted that he believes Putin has “spectacularly miscalculated” when it comes to Ukraine.

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/putins-popularity-could-be-damaged-after-ukraine-invasion.html