Texas coronavirus cases tick higher as state forges ahead with reopening

A combination of issues hit the Texas economy in the spring, said Robert Dye, senior vice president and chief economist at Comerica Bank. While the pandemic takes its toll, U.S. benchmark WTI crude oil futures have fallen more than 50% this year — a blow to the American energy capital of Texas. The state also houses the headquarters of American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, two companies damaged by travel reductions, and has seen cross-border commerce with Mexico drop. 

Dye expects a “significant decline” in Texas GDP in the second quarter. He also said that if coronavirus cases spike later this year, he would expect a “major pullback in the economy” immediately. Dye added that the effects could manifest long-term in businesses reluctant to bring on staff as they worry about repeated shutdowns leading to a cycle of hiring and firing. 

It could take until next month to know how reopening affects the number of new cases in Texas. It can also take 10 days for hospitalization numbers to catch up with infection figures, and three-to-four weeks for data on deaths to do so, according to Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas at Austin Covid-19 modeling consortium. 

She said tracking data show movement to places such as grocery stores has increased in recent weeks, though it is difficult to predict how much people are taking steps such as distancing and wearing face coverings. 

“Right now it’s hard to know the extent to which people are going out and taking those kinds of precautions,” Meyers said. 

While total cases in Texas are highest in cities, rural Texas has taken a bigger hit on a per-capita basis, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the state. Reported cases in Texas now exceed 43,000. 

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/16/texas-coronavirus-updates-cases-rise-as-state-economy-reopens.html