‘Unpredictable’ election in Africa’s largest economy is set to resonate around the world

Tinubu’s foreign exchange policies are unlikely to deviate from those of the current administration, analysts say, while Abubakar and Obi propose more liberal economic measures and diversification, alongside greater fiscal prudence.

“No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term, but victory for an opposition candidate could make the fiscal outlook considerably brighter further down the line,” said Virág Fórizs, Africa economist at Capital Economics.

“Opposition parties’ fiscal discipline pledges put Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi in a better position to get Nigeria’s fiscal house in order.”

Fórizs concluded, “The upshot is that, from an economic standpoint, the polls offer a choice between marginal steps away from growth-sapping policies and a more meaningful shift towards pro-market reforms that could unlock Nigeria’s economic potential down the line but involve near-term economic pain.”

Security

Buhari took office vowing to tackle Islamist militant organization Boko Haram, whose insurgency killed thousands and displaced millions.

Government forces seemingly succeeded, reclaiming large swathes of territory from the jihadist group. However, the extremist contingent splintered into competing groups in the north, complicating the challenge facing the incoming president.

Meanwhile, cattle bandits terrorize the north-central and northwest states, secessionists in the southeast clash with police and cattle herders battle farmers in “middle belt” states.

The Council on Foreign Relations Security Tracker documented around 7,000 violent deaths in Nigeria in 2022, down from 9,000 in 2021. It also confirmed an increase in state violence against civilians.

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/22/unpredictable-election-in-africas-largest-economy-is-set-to-resonate-around-the-world.html