Annalena Baerbock Holds the Keys to Germany’s Next Election: The Green Kingmaker
The Greens haven’t been part of a federal government in Germany since 2005 and the party is hungry for power. It used to be that at Green Party conferences, it was necessary to provide an extensive argument for why one wanted to be in government. This time around, though, the opposite is true, with those preferring to remain in the opposition more of a rarity.
This primarily has to do with the fact that the biggest issue facing the country is climate change. And many Greens believe that they are the only party in Germany capable of meeting that challenge. “We have a mission, and the others have made it clear that they aren’t up to the task,” says Green Party parliamentarian Renate Künast.
But who would actually be part of government? Who stands to receive cabinet appointments?
Baerbock and Habeck are clear. Habeck has recently been engaging much more deeply with financial issues and could also be interested in running a Climate Protection Ministry.
But as soon as positions of power are up for grabs, the party’s wings, which have remained quiet for so long, will once again become apparent. Both Habeck and Baerbock are seen as Realos, which means that those from the left camp, such as floor leader Anton Hofreiter, will expect to receive senior positions. His deputy Agnieszka Brugger, who enjoys a solid reputation across party lines as an expert on defense issues, could also be in line.
As ever, though, making such appointments could prove to be the biggest early challenge facing Baerbock, should the Greens end up in government. A mistake here could put an end to the party’s newfound unity.
How Could Baerbock End Up in the Chancellery?
Mathematically, the most likely coalition that fall elections might produce is a pairing of the Green Party with the Union. That would mean that Baerbock would only end up chancellor if the Greens were able to eke out a victory over the conservatives, as has happened in the last two state elections in Baden-Württemberg. Thus far, though, there has been little to indicate that such a thing might happen at the federal level. On the other hand, though, public opinion has been more volatile than normal this year, with political sentiment changing quickly. Results that seemed absurd not too long ago are now within the realm of possibility.
The question is whether the Union would accept a junior role. The party has learned in Baden-Württemberg that it’s not easy to find your way out of little brother status once it has been established. The Greens have now solidified their role as the supreme political power in the state.
The next option would be a potential “traffic-light coalition,” matching the Greens with the SPD (traditionally represented by red) and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP – yellow). For Baerbock to become the chancellor of such a coalition, the Greens would only have to beat out the SPD, a far lower hurdle to clear. Such a coalition already exists in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate – though under SPD leadership – and it has proven itself. Many Greens in Baden-Württemberg had been hoping for such a coalition in that state, too, following elections there in March, but Governor Winfried Kretschmann preferred to retain his partnership with the CDU.
What would be the primary project of such a coalition government? It wouldn’t likely be social equality, since the gulf between the SPD and the FDP is far too wide for that. There would also be significant differences on climate issues between the Greens, the pro-industry SPD and pro-business FDP. One could, though, easily imagine an alliance focused primarily on updating the country’s technological infrastructure, particularly when it comes to digitalization – an area where Germany fell behind during the Merkel years.