Coronavirus: Are We Ready for This Pandemic?

The coming weeks and months will be especially trying for the world at large. The virus is spreading with exponential force. How can it be stopped? Except for those who have already contracted the virus and recovered from it, most people’s immune systems have yet to develop antibodies to combat this brand-new pathogen. For the virus, it’s like penalty kicks without a goalie.

The best weapons we currently have against the disease are soap, alcohol-based disinfectants and admonitions to regularly wash one’s hands.

Health authorities around the world are now admitting they are powerless to stop the virus from spreading. Nevertheless, they’re not giving up. Their goal isn’t to eradicate the pathogen, but merely to slow it down and make it manageable for hospitals.

They believe a worst-case scenario can be prevented as long as there is enough space at hospitals for people who fall seriously ill. Under no circumstances should there be more acutely ill patients than there are available beds in intensive care units. Otherwise, the number of deaths could balloon.

Hospitals in Germany can handle a few thousand patients with COVID-19. They cannot handle tens of thousands. If a large number of doctors or nursing staff fall ill and cannot work, the situation could quickly spiral out of control. The health system even in a country as highly developed as Germany would then be on the verge of collapse.

In order to ensure there’s enough hospital beds for those patients who need them, Germany’s federal and state governments decided on Thursday evening that all hospitals should postpone all non-emergency operations starting Monday.

Healthy Yet Contagious

But the crucial question remains: How can the spread of a virus that is highly contagious and that has effortlessly circumnavigated the world in a short amount of time be slowed down? Epidemiologists have estimated that each infected person passes the virus on to an average of three other people. That’s a lot. This so-called basic reproduction number must be reduced. But how?

Sars-CoV-2 is so difficult to fight because it spreads easily among people who feel perfectly healthy. Infected people can remain asymptomatic for days, meaning they can unwittingly spread enormous amounts of germs through their upper airways.

Once sick, even patients with mild symptoms remain contagious. It’s not until nine days after the first symptoms emerge that people no longer pose a risk of infecting others, researchers in Munich and Berlin have established.

History has shown the right and the wrong way for authorities to react in the face of such a dangerous virus. The 1918-19 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, far exceeding the number of deaths during World War I. Nearly a third of the global population was infected within a short amount of time.

When the disease reached Philadelphia in September 1918, authorities there at first didn’t consider special measures necessary. A large military parade with around 200,000 participants was held despite the rampant epidemic, which helped it spread. In just four months, more than 12,000 Americans had lost their lives.

The city of St. Louis, on the other hand, quickly imposed far-reaching measures after the first cases emerged. Early on in the outbreak, despite considerable resistance, the city closed all schools, restaurants, cinemas and churches for weeks. Major events were also banned. In St. Louis, fewer than half as many people died as in Philadelphia.

Social Distancing

At the time, it paid off to widen the gap between people. The situation is no different with the coronavirus now. “Social distancing” is one of the few effective options health authorities have in the face of this pandemic.

Trade shows, concerts, sporting events, festivals and conferences are being cancelled in many places around the world. Companies are holding meetings online and telling their employees to work from home. Business trips are being cancelled. Many German schools and universities will close temporarily. Nurseries and preschools could be next. Children who contract COVID-19 rarely have serious symptoms, but some researchers believe they still play a role in the spread of the disease.

Nobody knows how long the state of emergency will last. It could be months rather than weeks.

Every single person is called upon to help fight the virus, says German Health Minister Jens Spahn. Indeed, everyone can do something — namely, be wary and avoid other people as much as possible. The World Health Organization recommends that nobody should get within a meter (3.3 feet) of a coughing person.

In the age of coronavirus, the rule is: Everyone is at risk themselves, and everyone puts other people at risk. The social distancing requirement is likely to significantly change people’s everyday lives. Standing close together in the subway, at a club, in an elevator or in line at the supermarket: All these things will feel risky from now on, as will shaking hands or kissing friends on the cheek.

Article source: https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/coronavirus-are-we-ready-for-this-pandemic-a-47ee1cde-c5b1-4c61-8a70-8e00ddc50cc0#ref=rss