Angela Merkel’s conservatives in Lower Saxony can’t top Social Democrats in state election
Three weeks after German voters handed Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) its worst result in decades, she suffered another setback on Sunday in a vote that was seen as taking the mood of the country just one day before political leaders begin federal coalition talks.
Preliminary results put the Social Democratic Party (SPD) ahead with 37.7 percent of the vote, followed by the CDU with 33.7. The Greens earned 8.8 percent and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came in with 7.2 percent.
The far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) could just make its way into the state parliament on 6 percent, while the Left’s 4.6 percent result means it won’t make it over the 5-percent hurdle for parliamentary representation.
SPD relieved
“This is a great evening for the Lower Saxon SPD,” Premier Stephen Weil said after the first results were released.
The leader of the national SPD and the party’s top candidate in September’s general election, Martin Schulz, echoed Weil’s sentiment, congratulating the Lower Saxon SPD for a “magnificent victory.”
Lower Saxony Premier Stephan Weil was pleased with his party’s results
The result is a turnaround for the SPD, which scored its worst performance in a national election since 1949 in September when it garnered only 20.5 percent of the vote. The national SPD leadership has since said it will not enter another “grand” federal coalition with Merkel’s CDU and the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
CDU down
Despite winning over 30 percent of the vote, Sunday’s result in Lower Saxony was the worst performance for the CDU in the state since 1959.
The CDU’s second place in Lower Saxony follows the party’s disappointing performance in September’s national election. The CDU and the CSU together scored the most votes, but their combined 33 percent share was their worst result since 1949.
Discussions are set to begin on Monday among the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the FDP to form a “Jamaica” coalition in Berlin. The “Jamaica” coalition is named after the Caribbean country because the three parties’ signature colors of black, green and yellow, correspond to the Jamaican flag.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
Colorful shorthand for German coalitions
Coalitions are common under Germany’s proportional representation system. To describe complex ballot outcomes, political pundits use colorful symbolism, often alluding to the flags of other nations. Coalition short-hand includes ‘Jamaica,’ ‘Kenya,’ and ‘traffic light’ coalitions.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
Black-red coalition
Conservative black combined with transformative red will be the color code, should Merkel continue the grand coalition with the Social Democrats beyond 2017. Yellow on these billboards alludes to Germany’s tricolor flag of black, red and gold. Black tops the flag, signifying Germany’s responsibility for the Holocaust.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
‘Jamaica’ option – black, yellow and green
Germany’s Greens were junior partners in Social Democrat-led coalitions between 1998 and 2005. Assuming that the far-right AfD remains isolated, one 2017 outcome could be a three-way deal between Merkel’s conservatives, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats, whose color is yellow. One example is northern Schleswig-Holstein where CDU premier Daniel Günther governs with the FDP and the Greens.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
‘Pizza Connection’ in Bonn, before parliament moved to Berlin
When Bonn was still Germany’s capital, individual conservatives and Greens met from 1995 in its suburban Italian Sassella restaurant. Since then, the ‘Pizza Connection’ has become code for speculation over further links. At regional level, in Hesse’s Wiesbaden assembly, Merkel’s CDU and Greens have governed together since 2014. Baden-Württemburg’s Greens-CDU coalition has governed since 2016.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
Another untried combination: Black, red, green, symbolized by Kenya’s flag
So far, a ‘Kenyan’ coalition has only emerged once at regional state level – last year in Saxony-Anhalt, when the SPD’s vote collapsed, and the AfD took a quarter of the votes. Premier Reiner Haseloff of Merkel’s conservatives forged a coalition comprising his conservative CDU, the battered SPD and the region’s Greens.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
‘Traffic light’ coalition
The market-oriented liberal FDP, whose color is yellow, has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats, whose color is red, and the Greens. A current example is Rhineland Palatinate’s three-way regional state coalition based in Mainz and headed by Social Democrat Malu Dreyer.
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Germany’s colorful coalition shorthand
Center-left combinations in three eastern states
Red-red-green coalitions exist in two German regions: since last September in Berlin city state and since 2014 in Thuringia. It’s Erfurt-based government is headed by Left party premier Bodo Ramelow, seen signing (third from left). Berlin’s three-way mix is headed by Social Democrat Michael Müller. Brandenburg has a two-way coalition, comprising the Social Democrats and the Left party.
One of the leading Green politicians who will represent the party in the upcoming national negotiations, Jürgen Tritten, said the CDU’s poor result in Lower Saxony on Sunday would make it more difficult for Merkel in her talks with the Greens and the FDP.
“[The result] weakens the CDU and that makes talks … not easier but more difficult,” he told German public broadcaster ARD.
A government renewal or Jamaica in Lower Saxony?
Initial results in Lower Saxony indicate that the SPD and the Greens could — just barely — be able to continue their coalition, but that will remain unclear until the final vote tally.
Depending on the outcome of the final count, the SPD could form a “grand” coalition with the CDU or a three-way “traffic light” coalition with the Greens and the FDP. “Traffic light” refers to the colors of the Greens, the FDP, and the SPD (red).
But the FDP’s top candidate for the state election, Stefan Birkner, told news agency dpa that “the FDP was not available for a traffic light coalition,” adding his party would only consider entering an administration with the CDU and the Greens.
An early election
The election in Lower Saxony was originally slated for January 2018 but was moved forward after a member of parliament for the Green Party, Elke Twesten, left her party in August to join the CDU. She thereby ended the slim majority held by the governing coalition comprised of the Greens and the SPD, making the election necessary.
Merkel had been heavily involved in the state’s short election campaign, even making several appearances in local town squares to address voters in person.
The SPD saw a surge in support shortly before the election, with some polls showing the party overtaking the CDU in the last few days of campaigning.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
Swamp Soccer
There has been precious little mud-slinging in the election campaign so far, in stark contrast to the Swamp Soccer match in August during the East Friesian “Wältmeisterschaften” (Wadden Cup). The Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage site dominates large areas in the northern part of Lower Saxony.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
Germany’s food basket
Agriculture, especially pork and beef production, is a key industry in Lower Saxony. The regional government claims that almost half of all potatoes in Germany are produced in the state. Each year, the country fair in the town of Verden crowns the most beautiful dairy cow from around 200 participants.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
The Volkswagen behemoth
The political influence on what was until recently the world’s largest carmaker, is unique. The state of Lower Saxony is one of the biggest shareholders in Volkswagen and holds 20 percent of voting rights. The state government has a say in the direction and running of the auto giant and has two representatives on the supervisory board.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
Two hats on
As state premier of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil is also a member of VW’s supervisory board. Qua office, so to speak. As is his finance minister and fellow Social Democrat, Olaf Lies. Weil sees the tradition of state lawmakers being on the board of having “proved itself for decades.”
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
The best of friends
The intertwining of politics and VW business has long been a cause for hefty criticizm, however. Gerhard Schröder’s (seen here awarding the state medal to VW chairman Ferdinand Piech) tenure as state premier between 1990 and 1998 came in for particular scrutiny. When he moved to the national stage, Schröder earned the moniker the “auto chancellor.”
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
The challenger
State Premier Stephan Weil’s main rival is Bernd Althusmann, the leader of the regional party of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Should he emerge victorious, Althusmann plans to bring in external expertise to VW. He envisions replacing one of the government’s seats on the advisory board with an auditor.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
Life support
It is impossible to overstate the economic significance of VW for Lower Saxony. It means jobs. Lots of them. Around 120,000 of VW’s worldwide 600,000 employees are based in the state. As well as the Wolfsburg headquarters, there are also production facilities in five further cities in Lower Saxony, including the port of Emden (pictured here), where cars are immediately loaded onto waiting ships.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
Wind in its sails
Lower Saxony is a leading pioneer of wind energy. With 203 new turbines in the first half of 2017, the state accounts for a quarter of all new facilities nationwide.
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Lower Saxony – what you need to know
Musical chairs in Hanover
The pack in the Hanover state parliament will be reshuffled on October 15. At least 135 lawmakers make up the assembly, but that figure rose to 137 after the last election due to overhang seats. This election was brought forward after a Green party MP switched allegiances to the Christian Democrats, meaning the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens lost their one-seat majority.