Germany’s Jamaica coalition: A look at the arguments

Almost a month on from the federal election, Chancellor Angela Merkel will on Wednesday begin preparatory talks with the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Green Party over forming a new governing coalition.

Last month’s election result means that this so-called “Jamaica coalition”— named after the parties’ combined colors, which make up those of the Jamaican flag — is the chancellor’s only realistic coalition option. Merkel’s power and reputation hinges on how well she can sweet-talk her two prospective junior partners into a forging a deal, first, with her Christian Democratic party (CDU) and, second, with one another.

Read more: German election: Can the Greens and FDP join Angela Merkel in a coalition?

There has been little love lost between the FDP and the Greens over the years. However, this is less to do with differing ideologies and more with the fact that the parties have traditionally battled to occupy the same socially-liberal center ground.

Ideologically, the largest wedge sits between the left-leaning Greens and the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU’s Bavarian sister-party. The conservative CSU will be reluctant to make too many concessions, having scored its lowest ever result in last month’s election, taking just under 39 percent of the vote in its home state. 

Merkel may need to exercise her knack for compromise and flexibility with her traditional allies, as well as her newer ones.

However, the FDP and the Greens will also be desperate to avoid the pitfall that has commonly befallen a junior coalition partner: losing credibility with their voters. Germany Social Democrats learned that the hard way in September, where, after four years in power as Merkel’s junior partner, they scored just over 20 percent of the vote.

DW explores five key issues and looks at where the four parties may swiftly forge agreements, and where wrangling negotiations could lay ahead in the coming weeks, if not months.

Taxation

Slashing the tax burden and reducing state expenditure has always been an FDP hallmark; all that changes is the figure. However, FDP chief Christian Linder underlined his party’s laissez-faire attitude towards fiscal policy when he claimed that Germany had become a high-taxing “kleptocracy.” 

The wants FDP cut taxes by €30 million per year, while the Union parties want to see only a €15 million reduction. While there’s plenty of scope for these two parties to reach agreement, the Greens don’t want to see any reduction whatsoever.

In fact, the Greens claim that the next government should have more resources to carry out broader public functions and to invest in infrastructure. This, they say, will be financed by raising tax rates for those earning upwards of €100,000 per year, a move both the Union and FDP staunchly oppose.

But all parties agree on lifting the burden for low and middle income households. However, if fiscal compromise isn’t found elsewhere, it’s difficult to see how this might come to fruition.

Refugee policy

With Germany forging its first new government since the 2015 refugee crisis, immigration policy is guaranteed to be a major theme in negotiations. However, Merkel’s allies in the CSU pose the greatest stumbling block.

The CSU had made an annual capone of the centerpieces of their manifesto. This would have allowed just 200,000 refugees into Germany per year. With the CDU, FDP and Greens all opposed to setting a limit, Merkel was forced to compromise with her Bavarian allies, agreeing to limit the number of refugees allowed to enter Germany without specifically referring to there being an “upper limit.”

 Union parties lost around 1 million votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and neither want to appear soft in coalition talks.

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  Deportations from Germany to Afghanistan

  By the planeload

  On September 12, a flight is scheduled to leave Düsseldorf airport for Afghanistan, carrying 15 rejected asylum seekers in what is the first group deportation to the country since a deadly car bomb blast near the German embassy in Kabul in late May. The opposition Greens and Left party slammed the resumption of deportations to Afghanistan as “cynical.”

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  Deportations from Germany to Afghanistan

  Fighting for a chance

  In March, high school students in Cottbus made headlines with a campaign to save three Afghan classmates from deportation. They demonstrated, collected signatures for a petition and raised money for an attorney to contest the teens’ asylum rejections – safe in the knowledge that their friends, among them Wali (above), can not be deported as long as proceedings continue.

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  Deportations from Germany to Afghanistan

  ‘Kabul is not safe’

  “Headed toward deadly peril,” this poster reads at a demonstration in Munich airport in February. Protesters often show up at German airports where the deportations take place. Several collective deportations left Germany in December 2016, and between January and May 2017. So far this year, the German government has sent back 261 people to Afghanistan.

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  Deportations from Germany to Afghanistan

  From Würzburg to Kabul

  Badam Haidari, in his mid-30s, spent seven years in Germany before he was deported to Afghanistan in January. He had previously worked for USAID in Afghanistan and fled the Taliban, whom he still fears years later – hoping that he will be able to return to Germany after all.

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  Deportations from Germany to Afghanistan

  Persecuted minorities

  In January, authorities deported Afghan Hindu Samir Narang to Kabul from Hamburg, where he had lived with his family for four years. Afghanistan, the young man told German public radio, “is not safe.” Minorities from Afghanistan who return because asylum is denied face religious persecution in the Muslim country. Deportation to Afghanistan is “life-threatening” to Samir, says change.org.

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  Deportations from Germany to Afghanistan

  Reluctant returnees

  Rejected asylum seekers deported from Germany to Kabul, with 20 euros in their pockets from the German authorities to tide them over at the start, can turn to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) for assistance. Funded by the German Foreign Office, members of the IPSO international psychosocial organization counsel the returnees.

  Author: Dagmar Breitenbach

Both the FDP and the Greens agree that any person fleeing a war-torn country should be granted the right to reside permanently in Germany, provided they meet the necessary criteria.

Going one step further, Green party leader Cem Özdemir said on Sunday that, “Asylum seekers who are already integrated and have jobs should be allowed to stay.” Joachim Stamp, FDP lawmaker and integration minister in North Rhein-Westphalia agreed, saying: “We should create a right of residence for well-integrated people with a steady job and who don’t have a criminal record.”

However, a major sticking point for the Greens will be over what happens to those who are not allowed to remain. Merkel’s government has significantly tightened the rules for rejected asylum seekers, for example, by extending pre-deportation custody for up to 10 days.

The question of whether Afghanistan is safe enough to deport nationals back to will also be contested. The Union parties and the FDP believe some regions of Afghanistan are safe enough. The Greens, however, have described the policy as “inhumane,” and stated in their program that the government must focus more on incentivizing voluntary returns.  

Read more: AfD, CDU, SPD: Where do German parties stand on refugees, asylum and immigration?

Add that to the fact that neither of the Union parties appear willing to heed the Green’s call that refugees should be reunited with their families in Germany, and Özdemir and his party could find themselves up against the wall with little wiggle room. Forcing the parties to delay a decision may be the Greens’ best hope in this area.

Domestic security

The rising terror threat in Germany has seen a broad tightening of security measures, both on the streets and online.

In June 2017, the German government added an unprecedented spate of new public surveillance lawsto Germany’s Criminal Code. This saw a major increase in the number security cameras installed across cities and sanctioned federal police to wear body cams while on patrol.

Read more: Preventing terrorism: What powers do German security forces have?

However, for the Union parties, this broad increase in the state’s surveillance powers doesn’t go far enough, particularly when it comes to retaining suspects’ data.

Both the FDP and Greens, meanwhile, have warned that the new laws are undermining Germany’s delicate balance between freedom and security. They both want to see a freeze in the expansion of Germany’s security systems, if not a roll back. 

All four parties do, however, agree on boosting police manpower by an additional 15,000 officers. 

Environment

The Green party will be under pressure to deliver on their environmental election promises or risk having the party congress vote against the terms of a Jamaica coalition.

However, the party’s demands are ambitious, to say the least. The want to see the 20 dirtiest coal mines immediately shut down so that by 2030 Germany can reduce its CO2 emission levels by 40 percent from its 1990 levels. 

The Greens also want to see 100 percent of electricity generated by renewable sources by 2030. They hope to achieve this by abolishing the cap on wind and solar expansion, as well as by offering government subsidies to eco-friendly energy providers. 

While the FDP isn’t in theory against expanding Germany’s renewable energy sector, it believes that markets are better placed to foster this solution, rather than government policy. The business-friendly party stated in its election program that “renewable energy should play by the rules of the future market, with all the chances and risks that it entails.”

Merkel, herself once an environmental minister, will be expected to bridge the two parties’ demands. And by offering the environment minister position to the Greens, she will likely win major compromises elsewhere.

Education

All four parties are in favor of investing in the country’s education but the question, once again, is how?

Read more: Germany ill-prepared for massive student increase, study warns

Both the Greens and FDP want to boost investment into schools and education by getting rid of a constitutional law that only allows the federal government to prop up financial support to states under exceptional circumstances and is mainly restricted to helping fund tertiary education. 

While the Union parties are against such a move, they have indicated that there could be room for maneuver. In its Bavarian state manifesto, the CSU said it would welcome the federal government sharing education costs, but that “education policy must remain a matter for individual states.” In the CDU and CSU’s joint-program, they wrote: “School education is and will remain a matter for the states in accordance with the order of the Basic Law. Nevertheless, we face a national responsibility.”

Article source: http://www.dw.com/en/germany-s-jamaica-coalition-a-look-at-the-arguments/a-40958822?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-xml-atom